Friday, November 28, 2008

Why Harper may not mind losing the Vote of Confidence

The news is filled with articles of the upcoming or potential Vote of No Confidence. As this would be based upon the financial statement and the speech from the throne if the present government loses, the Prime Minister would either resign or call for a new election. If it is the former, the Governor General, her Execellency Michaëlle Jean could ask the Opposition if they are capable of forming a government, thus saving us from the potential of another General Election.

The Press is reporting of a deal between the Liberals and the NDP to form a coalition government. Jophn Ivison has this opinion on that happening.

So what would happen is that the Liberal-NDP coalition would form the government, with the two parties dividing up the cabinet seats in accordance to whatever deal has been made. This would mean the new Prime Minister would be Stéphane Maurice Dion. Now this is the man almost no Canadians had any confidence towards during the past election, in fact he didn't even have support of his own party, which is why he is either a interm leader or the guy who's there only because there is nobody else. So already you can see a few problems with this deal. I've also read that some have suggested the new PM would be Michael Ignatieff, which would impress his BFF Bob Rae, who also happens to be running for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada (Bloc Toronto). No doubt there would be some appeasement, such as a very nice cabinet post, but what if the post Rae wants is promised to the NDP.

As of right now, Prime Minister Harper has been able to delay the vote for a week, probably in hope of getting some deal with the Opposition.

What I'm thinking, perhaps in the back of his mind, he's mulling over whether or not he shouldn't let the vote happen. Let's say he loses, resigns and a coalition is formed and takes the government. The Prime Minister is now a man who was considered by the vast majority of Canadians as being unfit as a leader and one almost no one in the country trusted in the areas of finances. Second you have a coalition of parties that are not the same and don't share that many values. Can you imagine when the remaining Martinites hear that the NDP partners want to shoot the deficit up to the stratosphere through things all sort of spending? What if its Ignatieff as PM? do you think his opponents in the upcoming leadership conference will be happy? Of course everyone will put the needs of the country ahead of personal interests and ego. Indeed they would and when you believe that, I have this bridge in Brooklyn I'm interested in selling.

But why would Harper not be overly upset? Consider what I've written and add this, the worst time of a recession is at the beginning. That's when all the lay-offs take place and all the problems become visible. At that particular moment, if things work out, the Coalition is in power, taking it on the chin and the Conservatives are 'trying' to give advice. Plus at the worst, you will have the NDP with their philosophy clashing with the Liberals, it will be at best a shakey coalition that will also depend upon the Bloc. In other words you have a recipe for disaster, and the only party that stands the most to gain is the Conservatives.

When the Coalition collapses, some time in the spring there will be an election and if things work out, the Liberals will have even less support. The Conservatives will point out 'how bads things were' under the Liberal-NDP coalition and declare they had the plan to help Canada. By the spring, things might improve, but not soon enough to save the Liberals and at the end of the election, the Conservatives will form the majority government. The timing again will be perfect, this recession may be a short but nasty one and so the Coalition took the worst and when the Conservatives are sworn in as the government, things will begin to pick up.

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